Saga Method

The Saga Method is a realist approach to working with evidence in complex, real-world settings.

The Saga Method is grounded in the recognition that programs and services do not operate in isolation. Outcomes are shaped not only by activities and inputs, but by the systems they sit within — including organisational structures, policy environments, relationships, histories, cultural norms, incentives, and constraints (a lot of the time, we don't see this when collecting data).

Rather than simplifying this complexity, the Saga Method works with it.

In practice, the Saga Method supports organisations in working with evidence thoughtfully — recognising both its power and its limits — and in making sense of complexity in ways that are grounded, ethical, and oriented toward meaningful use.

How we work

In partnership, alongside each other
Fit-for-purpose
Grounded in rigour, curiosity, and care
Attentive to what can, and can't, be measured
Focused on clarity, meaning, and use.

Saga Systems conducts all evaluations in accordance with the Australian Evaluation Society's Guidelines for the Ethical Conduct of Evaluations.

The Saga Method brings together a set of guiding principles that shape how we work with evidence in complex systems:

A realist foundation - Working with evidence as it exists in real-world settings:

Realist evaluation principles inform the Saga Method. At its core is the understanding that programs may not directly cause outcomes. Change occurs when people respond to programs in particular contexts. Those responses vary across settings, populations, and points in time; often, we cannot see the influence. As a result, the same initiative may lead to different outcomes in different circumstances. The focus of the Saga Method is therefore not only on whether something worked, but on understanding:

What worked,
For whom,
Under what conditions,
and why.

This emphasis on explanation — rather than attribution alone — supports learning and decision-making.

The iceberg as guide - Looking beyond visible outcomes to underlying drivers:

The Saga Method uses the iceberg as a guiding analogy for inquiry. Above the surface are the elements that are most visible and measurable: program activities, inputs/outputs, outcomes, and available data. These are often the starting point for evaluation and evidence use.

Below the surface are the less visible forces that shape those outcomes — including histories, relationships, organisational dynamics, cultural expectations, policy settings, power, trust, incentives, and constraints.

While these deeper influences cannot always be fully measured or directly observed, they are often critical to understanding why programs work as they do and why outcomes vary across contexts. The Saga Method treats what lies beneath the surface as an active and influential part of the system.

Moving between surface and depth - Connecting what we observe with why it happens:

Central to the Saga Method is a deliberate movement between what can be seen and what shapes it. Work typically begins by clarifying the decision or question at hand, and by examining what evidence is already available or feasible to generate. This includes quantitative and qualitative data, lived experience, operational knowledge, and relevant literature or frameworks.

From there, lines of inquiry are followed downward to explore how system conditions influence implementation and outcomes. This exploration acknowledges uncertainty and accepts that not all influences can be fully known or isolated.

Insight is then brought back to the surface — synthesised and interpreted to support judgement, learning, and action. This movement between observation, explanation, and sense-making is iterative rather than linear, and continues as understanding deepens.

Developing and refining explanations - Building credible accounts of what works, for whom, and why:

Rather than treating findings as fixed or final, the method involves developing working explanations about how change occurs in particular contexts. These explanations are informed by evidence, theory, and stakeholder perspectives, and are tested and refined as new insights emerge.

Over time, this process strengthens understanding of what matters most, for whom, and under what conditions.

What the Saga Method examines - The factors that shape outcomes in complex systems:

Using mixed methods, triangulated evidence, and systems thinking, the Saga Method explores four interconnected and mutually informing areas:

Process - What was implemented, how, and for whom?
Outcomes - What changed, for whom, and over what timeframe?
System context - What organisational, cultural, policy, or structural conditions shaped what was possible and what occurred?
Insight - What meaning can be drawn across these elements, and what matters now for future decisions?

These areas are not treated as sequential steps, but as lenses that inform one another as understanding develops.

Sense-making at the centre - Turning evidence into shared understanding and action:

Sense-making sits at the centre of the Saga Method. Through data, dialogue, and interpretation, the method supports organisations to move beyond measurement alone toward understanding that is rigorous, situated, and usable.

Sense-making involves bringing together multiple forms of evidence, surfacing assumptions, exploring patterns and tensions, and supporting shared understanding — particularly where certainty is not possible.The aim is not to produce definitive answers, but to generate insight that supports meaningful and purposeful change.