Saga Method: Evidence-Based Approach to Complex Systems

Iceberg diagram illustrating visible evidence, observation, system context, and deeper system context for understanding complex systems.

The Saga Method is a realist-informed approach to research and evaluation that recognises the complexity of working with evidence in real-world settings.

Programs, services and interventions do not operate in isolation. Outcomes are shaped not only by what is delivered, but by the systems in which that work takes place — including organisational structures, policy environments, relationships, histories, cultural norms, resources and constraints.

Some of these influences are visible in the data. Others are harder to see.

Rather than simplifying this complexity, the Saga Method seeks to understand it. We look beyond what happened to explore how, why, for whom and under what conditions — and what that means for the decisions that follow.

In practice, this means working thoughtfully with evidence: recognising both what it can tell us and its limitations, bringing together different forms of knowledge and experience, and making sense of findings within their context.

How we work

In partnership
Fit-for-purpose and proportionate
Grounded in rigour, curiosity and care
Attentive to what can — and cannot — be measured
Focused on clarity, meaning and use

Saga Systems conducts all evaluations in accordance with the Australian Evaluation Society's Guidelines for the Ethical Conduct of Evaluations.

The Saga Method brings together a set of guiding principles that shape how we work with evidence in complex systems:

A realist foundation - Working with evidence as it exists in real-world settings:

Realist evaluation principles inform the Saga Method. At its core is the understanding that programs may not directly cause outcomes. Change occurs when people respond to programs in particular contexts. Those responses vary across settings, populations, and points in time; often, we cannot see the influence. As a result, the same initiative may lead to different outcomes in different circumstances. The focus of the Saga Method is therefore not only on whether something worked, but on understanding:

What worked,
For whom,
Under what conditions,
and why.

This emphasis on explanation — rather than attribution alone — supports learning and decision-making.

The iceberg as guide - Looking beyond visible outcomes to underlying drivers:

The Saga Method uses the iceberg as a guiding analogy for inquiry. Above the surface are the elements that are most visible and measurable: program activities, inputs/outputs, outcomes, and available data. These are often the starting point for evaluation and evidence use.

Below the surface are the less visible forces that shape those outcomes — including histories, relationships, organisational dynamics, cultural expectations, policy settings, power, trust, incentives, and constraints.

While these deeper influences cannot always be fully measured or directly observed, they are often critical to understanding why programs work as they do and why outcomes vary across contexts. The Saga Method treats what lies beneath the surface as an active and influential part of the system.

Moving between surface and depth - Connecting what we observe with why it happens:

Central to the Saga Method is a deliberate movement between what can be seen and what shapes it. Work typically begins by clarifying the decision or question at hand, and by examining what evidence is already available or feasible to generate. This includes quantitative and qualitative data, lived experience, operational knowledge, and relevant literature or frameworks.

From there, lines of inquiry are followed downward to explore how system conditions influence implementation and outcomes. This exploration acknowledges uncertainty and accepts that not all influences can be fully known or isolated.

Insight is then brought back to the surface — synthesised and interpreted to support judgement, learning, and action. This movement between observation, explanation, and sense-making is iterative rather than linear, and continues as understanding deepens.

Developing and refining explanations - Building credible accounts of what works, for whom, and why:

Rather than treating findings as fixed or final, the method involves developing working explanations about how change occurs in particular contexts. These explanations are informed by evidence, theory, and stakeholder perspectives, and are tested and refined as new insights emerge.

Over time, this process strengthens understanding of what matters most, for whom, and under what conditions.

What the Saga Method examines - The factors that shape outcomes in complex systems:

Using mixed methods, triangulated evidence, and systems thinking, the Saga Method explores four interconnected and mutually informing areas:

Process - What was implemented, how, and for whom?
Outcomes - What changed, for whom, and over what timeframe?
System context - What organisational, cultural, policy, or structural conditions shaped what was possible and what occurred?
Insight - What meaning can be drawn across these elements, and what matters now for future decisions?

These areas are not treated as sequential steps, but as lenses that inform one another as understanding develops.

Sense-making at the centre - Turning evidence into shared understanding and action:

Sense-making sits at the centre of the Saga Method. Through data, dialogue, and interpretation, the method supports organisations to move beyond measurement alone toward understanding that is rigorous, situated, and usable.

Sense-making involves bringing together multiple forms of evidence, surfacing assumptions, exploring patterns and tensions, and supporting shared understanding — particularly where certainty is not possible.The aim is not to produce definitive answers, but to generate insight that supports meaningful and purposeful change.